Each week former SurvivorNZ player Shannon Quinn and Survivor superfan Ryan Brink will go head to head ranking each players likelihood of being voted out in the next episode from safest to most in danger.
The Rulebook: To play this game and for those of you following along, we will be using the traditional Gordon Holmes Power Rankings system to determine the winner. The ranking of the person who is voted out of the next episode will determine the number of points the players will earn.
Note:We rank our players from who we believe is least likely to most likely to be sent home that episode. These are not ranking of who we believe is going to win.
Current standings after Week 2. Karla was eliminated.
Ryan – 29 Points
Shannon – 28 Points
Taken out the top spot! Brad’s on a roll… Idol? Check. Going full beast-mode at challenges? Check. Actually getting confessionals? Check. As long as he plays his cards right he should be super-duper safe this week.
Still playing a subtle, calculated game. Her name has never come up on the radar and she has been in the majority each week. Obviously it’s a bit riskier for her because Chani don’t look to be winning anytime soon, BUT it looks as though she may be finding her very own idol next episode… (Don’t worry TVNZ, you’ll get there one day).
Josh seems to be pretty well integrated in the ‘invisible/not so invisible 5’. He’s proven himself in the challenges and he’s so far stayed out of any of the bickering. I can’t see him becoming a target just yet.
Dave has slotted himself nicely into the ‘above average’ category on his tribe. He’s got a good alliance – but he’s not the leader, he performs quite well at challenges – but he hasn’t been outstanding, and he’s involved in strategy talks – but he’s not the one calling the shots.
Didn’t really hear much from Matt this week, the only thing that stood out was that blinding butt! Butt (heh) that aside, he’s still absolutely smashing these challenges. However he didn’t appear to be quite as solidly involved in the 5 as some of the others this week… That could give him flexibility later, or could make him easy pickings.
Renee is just so solid! She seems very clever, very clued up on her tribe’s antics and she hasn’t even looked to be close to cracking. I just don’t know if she’s wedged herself as firmly in the majority alliance as some of the others at this stage.
Oh Tess… Showing how having no Survivor knowledge can definitely let you down, but at least you won’t do that again! On the plus side those fire-making skills were very impressive. The other threat for Tess is she’s making very clear enemies early on, if a tribe swap (or similar) comes up soon then those will be easy numbers against her.
Arun is still in the numbers on his tribe, but I don’t know whether he is as sociable as some of the other players. He’s a straight talker and sometimes that’s not the best thing to be. I can see him potentially being left behind if his ideas differ from others, but I still don’t think that will be anytime soon.
Adam is bloody amazing T.V and I loved how they decided to edit in his vomiting sequence in all it’s glory. I was also really impressed with him in the challenge; he obviously gave it all he had. He’s found his way into a strong alliance but is much closer with Tess than any of the others – which could be a dangerous move if it becomes more obvious.
Lisa doesn’t appear to be anyone’s number 1 target just yet. The ‘invisible 5’ mentioned they’d like to bring her along, but she’s still considered an extra number to them, so that could change pretty quickly. I think for now she could easily flip-flop around and play with anyone she chooses, but she’ll have to choose wisely.
Was Tara even in this episode?? Camp-mum had a strong start but it’s very quickly faded away. She hasn’t seemed to fit herself into any of the major alliances and I honestly don’t know if she’s picked anybody to work with seriously yet. She still seems to be viewed as a trustworthy player so a good number to have onboard; it will just depend on who recruits her first.
JT appears to be firmly in charge in terms of strategic play at this point, he seems to be calling all the shots. I feel like the biggest threat for him now is that he’s played too hard too soon and will likely be seen as untrustworthy by his tribe in the near future.
Dylan is very clearly alienated from his tribe, and from next weeks preview it looks as though it just gets worse! We haven’t been given a lot of info as to what has caused this either. I do think that Dylan knows the game well enough to potentially work something to his advantage to survive a little longer, but with an idol in play already it’s not looking good…
Kaysha appears to have made a bit of an enemy with Tess! (Again we haven’t really been shown enough interactions to know why). Having a member of the biggest alliance gunning for you makes your chances much more slim. Her best bet is turning on Dylan and directing the vote that way. But more than anything she should be praying that Khang Khaw continue their winning streak.
Franky was shown to be having a really hard time last episode, if her health doesn’t improve quickly then she could definitely be on the chopping block. However I see her as a pretty decent social player, I think she still has a chance to squeeze her way into the majority for one more vote.
Still hilarious (I’d like him to stay longer just so we can get some more memes out of him!), but still not safe. Karla wrote his name down at tribal; which likely means that even though we weren’t shown him as an option, his name was obviously being thrown around. I still think his days are numbered.
Karla definitely had a bit of bad luck landing herself on a tribe where she didn’t really fit in to any alliance easily. But she also made the mistake of openly admitting to the whole tribe that she was clearly on the bottom – putting that info squarely in everyone’s minds (you gotta fake it till you make it!). BIG kudos though for continuing with broken rib?!?
RYAN: Another strong week. The outpost is LIT! Check out my recap with Season 1 player Captain Mike Sparrow.
Dave jumps up to number 1 for me this week. A quieter episode, but he is getting intel from the other tribe and is in a super comfortable position on Chani despite the losses. The player i’d most be shocked to see sent home this week.
Similar to Dave, has been in a great position so far this season. She’s on anyones radar at this point. The semi-spoiler in the TVNZ advert also indicates she may be sent to the Outpost this week which means her game could be about to come alive.
Tessa literally has given one of the power players in this game an Idol! Possession is nine-tenths of the law. This is HUGE and while he did not necessarily need it at this point in the game, having the idol in his pocket and more importantly out of Dylan’s pocket.
It came out after the first episode aired that JT and Arun voted separately to hide the fact they are in a close alliance. It’s a really savvy move. The big guy is an asset to his tribe, in with the numbers and does not appear to making waves. No chance of leaving this week.
Super interesting insight into Josh and his thoughts on the state of play this week. While I personally disagree with his statement that naming an alliance is a bad idea (It’s great), I liked that he had a social awareness of the other players around him and is solidifying his “tight 5.” I’m back on the Josh Train!
Who? I want to see more.
Tess, do not share information with that snake JT!!! There is so much to love and dislike about Tess so far this season. She is in a ‘Tight 5″ but looks like she is keeping her options open by pushing to keep Lisa. Her relationship with Adam is stronger than first thought and should allow her to jump whichever way the cards fall if Khang Khaw head to tribal. I hope you are trying to get that idol back.
As a school teacher when I have nothing to write about a student in a school report I usually dust off the comment handbook. This week I can’t remember anything memorable happening in Matts game. So for you i’ve dusted off the handbook. Matt participated well in the challenges second episode of Survivor New Zealand 2018. He was respectful and was inclusive of others. Lets hope next week something more exciting happens. 🙂
JT is in the power position sitting atop his throne as the King of Chani right now. But like any King, there are those who will look to overthrow you. By going to the Outpost he continues to put a bigger target on his back. 5 Days in, were a long way from Day 39 to be playing this hard, so early.
Apart from getting to collect Old Mate it was a quiet week for super fan Lisa.She does not appear to be in the Tight 5, but also not seen as an obvious boot. This is exactly where Lisa said she wanted to position herself pregame, waiting patiently, sharpening her knives, ready to slay!
Did someone say Watermelons! I’m so neutral on Adam at this point. I don’t know what to feel when I see him on screen. He seems to be in a decent position, but I worry a few of his sassy comments may come back to bite him.
Franky being sick is the only reason I have her so low. While she was shown as an alternate for the vote, she still appears to be in with the majority at this point. I think this week we should get a clearer picture of her game moving forward.
Seems lovely, but at this point of the game, I could be sitting next to Tara on the bus and as a super duper fan of Survivor still have no idea who she was? I hope we get to see more from Tara this week.
The biggest drop in my rankings this week from 2nd to 14th. I love Kaysha, but i’m concerned she is seen as to closely aligned with Dylan and that she is possibly ostracising herself from others. The secret alliance on Day 1 has become a publicly discussed talking point by Day 5.
Apparently Dylan is a bit of a Dick…Harsh! The way the show is presenting the tribe dynamics, Dylan is outside the numbers and not fitting in. He is either going to need a miracle aka a tribe swap, to get out of this sticky situation.
Odd man out at Chani. If they lose again and they don’t value potential challenge strength, your quest for
the Ring, Sole-Survivor will be over.
Dead to us – Karla, check out her thoughts in our exit interview