Each week former SurvivorNZ player Shannon Quinn and Survivor superfan Ryan Brink will go head to head ranking each players likelihood of being voted out in the next episode from safest to most in danger.
The Rulebook: To play this game and for those of you following along, we will be using the traditional Gordon Holmes Power Rankings system to determine the winner. The ranking of the person who is voted out of the next episode will determine the number of points the players will earn.
Note:We rank our players from who we believe is least likely to most likely to be sent home that episode. These are not ranking of who we believe is going to win.
Current standings after Week 4. Kaysha was eliminated.
Shannon – 57 Points
Ryan – 53 Points
Still in the number 1 spot for me! Josh is going to be a very dangerous competitor if he’s allowed to make the merge (which I’m betting he will!). He really seems to be calculating every move he makes and he’s so far been well ahead of most of the others. Still a strong member of the tight 5 without having the tricky title of ‘leader’ that Brad seems to have picked up, he won’t go anywhere anytime soon.
The definite leader of the tight 5 (not so good), with the distinct advantage of an idol in his pocket (very good). It also doesn’t look like he’s even going to be forced to play it anytime soon, the rest of the tribe just don’t have enough power to take this king-pin down. I’ll worry about Brad when he makes it to the merge, but for now he’s sitting pretty.
Sneaky little snake! I loved seeing Arun coming out guns blazing but I do wonder whether him being so upfront about it will come back to haunt him in the future… But for now he seems to have a great deal of control in the game, I don’t think anyone will be willing to cross him just yet. He also seems to have kept all his extra pies secret so far!!
Tess is a strong competitor; she’s also just gotten rid of one of her main enemies and appears to have the boys wrapped around her little finger. Being a part of the ‘mean girls club’ may work against her further down the track, but right now she looks lovely compared to Adam so that’ll work in her favour.
Dave isn’t quite in the core alliance over at Chani but he’s definitely not an outsider either, there’s still a few that would need to drop before he’s targeted. It also looks like he’s going to gain a strong ally next episode; this could be risky if the rest of the tribe work out how close they are, if not then it could be a huge advantage for him.
Oh my lord Adam really let loose last episode. He makes the best TV by far but that was getting ruthless, almost hard to watch! He’s in a solid position at the moment but I do think his opinions and outspoken attitude will get him in trouble eventually and I could see him as the first one targeted from that core alliance.
Matt doesn’t seem to fit in anywhere in his current tribe; he’s not really a ‘cool kid’ but he’s not really an outcast either… I actually think it’ll work quite well for him. He’s flying so far below the radar that everyone seems to have almost forgotten he’s there. The reason I don’t have him higher is due to next week’s preview; even though he has a friend already at Chani I can’t imagine he’s going to be put in an easy situation over there.
Being viewed as the weakest in Chani isn’t necessarily a bad thing… UNLESS they continue to get pummeled (which could be highly likely sooo…yeah it may be a bad thing). BUT she still has an idol and a reasonably stable alliance (depending on how bad JT really wants that idol). So basically I could see things going either way for Eve, but I can’t see her going home with an idol in her pocket.
I feel like JT is playing one of the best strategic games so far in the season. He seems to be easily controlling the votes each week without making it obvious that he’s doing so, and he’s also made some very strong alliances with Arun and Eve. The only reason I still have him middle of the pack is because I can imagine the rest of the tribe may soon want to eat before they’re eaten.
Lisa is still playing a nice, subtle game but the only reason she’s not on the bottom this week is because there’s a few on the hit-list before her. She still hasn’t managed to crack into any solid alliance, although the tight 5 aren’t making that easy… Her best bet now is to hide behind Dylan and Tara as the shots are fired and pray for the merge.
Renee definitely doesn’t look safe right now…. She’s not a part of the power alliance at Chani, she doesn’t have an idol and her tribe seem to target strong females quite often. BUT she’s aware of the situation she’s in and I think she’ll have the smarts to potentially change her fate by strategizing with anyone and everyone when it comes to it, she won’t go down without a fight.
I feel bad that I’ve consistently had Liam near the bottom in all my ratings… I really do like him, but he just never seems safe! He’s blended in quite nicely in the boy’s club, but he’s still not in any sort of firm alliance that would have his back as the numbers continue to dwindle…
The two things I’ve learnt about Tara are: #1 She cooks rice well, #2 she looks great in a crop top. So far Tara has managed by floating under the radar, but if she doesn’t start hustling soon she’s going to find herself on the chopping block. If Dylan gets an idol or manages to be exempt from tribal then I see the votes falling on Tara, and right now she doesn’t have anybody on her side that could change that.
Scraped through by the skin of his teeth! (And by Kaysha unwittingly throwing herself under the bus that was hurtling straight for him). Things are still looking pretty dire for Dills, I can’t see an easy way out of this mess that he’s found himself in. I wouldn’t count him out just yet though, anything can happen in Survivor.
RYAN: Week 3 Recap
The Kaysha vote out was a brilliant move for Tess. She gets out the predominant agitator against her, removing her name from potentially being raised, she solidified her alliances with the guys and is potentially the least threatening person within that group. A strong position coming into a swap or merge.
Another strong week for Arun. With his visit to the outpost he has kept his options open to forming an alliance with Josh and the tight 5 on the Khang Khaw alliance.
#3 Josh (SNAKE OF THE WEEK)
Slowly but surely my winners pick Josh is making his way up the board. My SNAKE of the week, Josh has opened up alliances with Arun, maintained his ‘tight 5’ and left the possibility of using Dylan moving forward by keeping him in the game after their conversation before tribal. I also loved that he nominated himself as the person to sit out this week.
If I base my opinions on the advert for this week then I’m a little concerned for Brad, but basing my opinions solely on the show he has put himself into a super strong position. His read not to trust Kaysha was accurate and I loved that he had a side conversation with Lisa about the situation. With an idol in his back pocket, Brad is appearing to be more than your typical alpha jock player.
Despite being an obvious target JT seems to be avoiding his name being raised in a serious manner by his Chani tribe. I’m nervous if he is swapped with Josh, as JT does not fit the mould of the ALPHA alliance Josh is trying to build.
MOMENT OF THE WEEK: The rigging of the sticks just highlights the difference in gameplay between the two tribes and was masterfully done.
Nothing new to add for Dave this week. Dave remains in a strong position on Chani with a good sense of scepticism in his alliance with JT. The advert appears to indicate a reunion with his real life Matt. Lets see how this pairing unfolds.
Similar to Dave, nothing moved the needle strongly this week. Maintained his alliance, while flirting with the possibility of a sub alliance with Kaysha. Matt showed himself to be a deeper strategic thinker in the episode and a reunion with Dave is going to potentially shake this game up.
Eve for me is in the middle of the pack, which is not necessarily a bad thing at this stage of the game. Having an Idol is great, but having everyone know that you have it is dangerous. She appears to be perceived as one of the weaker physically left on Chani, so a loss could throw a spanner in the works this week.
Lisa had strong confessionals this week, but they are few and far between. We are hearing her narrate the stories of others, when I’d love to see her being shown elaborating on her own plans moving forward. Come the merge I’m sure we will see the game more through Lisa’s eyes.
Strong opinions are great. But when you know the vote is not going on Dylan this week, biting your tongue would have been the better plan. Snakes strike quickly when provoked.
I like Liam, but i just don’t see any strategic gameplay at this point. Hopefully in a swap he can prove to be a stronger asset in challenges.
If i’m looking at current Chani, I just feel they would target Renee over Liam. I don’t think it’s the right move as I think Renee has a strong game in her just waiting to be set loose. The impending swap could be her saving grace.
Saved once and is disliked by both tribes. It may be his only saving grace at this point. (Reusing this meme as it is even more accurate this week).
Dead to us – KAYSHA