Each week former SurvivorNZ player Shannon Quinn and Survivor superfan Ryan Brink will go head to head ranking each players likelihood of being voted out in the next episode from safest to most in danger.
The Rulebook: To play this game and for those of you following along, we will be using the traditional Gordon Holmes Power Rankings system to determine the winner. The ranking of the person who is voted out of the next episode will determine the number of points the players will earn.
Note:We rank our players from who we believe is least likely to most likely to be sent home that episode. These are not ranking of who we believe is going to win.
Current standings after Week 5. Liam was eliminated.
Shannon – 69 Points
Ryan – 64 Points
Tess absolutely smashed it this week; she took her head injury like a champ, kept completely quiet in the grilling by Eve pre-tribal, and just overall maintained dominance at camp without being target #1 (even without her best bud). She is a force to be reckoned with and I would be nervous taking her through to the merge
(but I’m betting she’ll be there).
Brad orchestrated tribal nicely again this week but it’s clear that he will definitely have a huge target on his back moving into the merge. Nothing he needs to worry about at this point though (unless a mutiny starts brewing), he’s still sitting pretty with an idol in his back pocket. I’m actually surprised at how much power Brad seems to have and he hasn’t been targeted sooner.
Arun could go either way now, but I think his best bet is to stick with original Chani and get Dylan firmly on board in taking out a power-player. He’s proving to be a very strategic player but also may be a bit of a loose cannon, which I love! I think no matter what he chooses he’ll put himself in a good position for the tribals to come. (IN CASE YOU CAN’T TELL I’M EXTREMELY EXCITED TO SEE WHAT NEW CHANI DOES).
Dave now has his bud Matt to work with, as long as they continue to keep that on the down-low then it should serve him really well. Dave doesn’t seem as clued in on survivor strategy but he’s got himself a few options to work with now. Have no idea who he’s gonna go with but he’s got good connections all over the place and it should keep him safe for awhile….
Matt still seems like a bit of a lone wolf to me! He made a good alliance but never seemed as committed as the rest, but that makes his position even better in my opinion! He’s basically got full choice of the playing field, also no-one ever seems to mention Matt in any confessionals regarding alliances so I think he’s pretty good at flying well below the radar. I have high hopes for ol’ Matty Boy. I know he’ll do me proud.
I can understand why Lisa and Tara would want to play it safe at this point, but they’re going to have to mix things up soon if they want to get near the end. Lisa is looking good at the moment though, Brad seems to really trust her and she has a lot of targets that need to be taken out before the heat is on her.
I really want Tara to take some risks!! I think she could really do well if she stops playing so safe and works to put herself in a better position. The way she’s going I can imagine it’s likely that she’ll make the merge, but compared to others she won’t have really done anything to ‘deserve’ to be there.
At least it looks like Renee will fare better in this male-dominant tribe than Shay did!! I think her position has actually become much more promising, I just can’t imagine her being anyone’s number one target. She plays a pretty subtle game but she’ll need to choose her side wisely.
Josh could definitely be in a bit of trouble now! Without Brad around to take the heat it looks like Josh will be considered top-dog…. Never a good position to be. It might come down to how Arun wants to play the game… whether he agrees with Josh and wants only the strongest to make the merge. Josh has been a silent threat throughout this season though so I think he’ll still have a few tricks up his sleeve to make things roll his way.
I’m so excited for Dylan to hopefully shake things up! He’s got absolutely nothing to loose so I’m anticipating a big move if we see Chani heading to tribal. I still have him pretty low though because I’m not sure if Arun will be interested in siding with him…
I was glad Eve played her idol, it was a 50/50 call really. Plus, even if she had played it for Liam; that would’ve probably just prompted Brad to play his also and then she may have gone home next anyway. Unless she can really hustle, the only thing saving her from being on the bottom is JT being viewed as the sneakier/more dangerous player.
Adam has been left without his main partner in crime and I just can’t see him fitting in with the current Chani all too well. Also if former Chani take Dylan up on his offer (which I feel like they’ll be silly not to do) then I think it’s pretty clear that Dylan would be all too happy to see the back of him.
JT is definitely in the hot seat now. He could potentially try to sway Tara or Lisa considering they’re clearly #6 and #7 in their current alliance… But they look pretty solid right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if JT does manage to think up some master plan to keep himself in the game, but mostly I think his best bet is that hidden immunity idol reappearing… they’re eaten.
RYAN: Week 5 Recap
Back-to-back first place for Tess. She is in a great spot right now on on Khangkhaw. It makes no sense at this point for anyone within the 4 to flip into a position that at best is drawing rocks.
#2 Lisa: (SNAKE OF THE WEEK)
Lisa has demonstrated that she is clearly one of the best social players in this game. She was shown building connections with all the former Chani members, while maintaining a close relationship with Brad. She is not within the ‘visible 5’ but has all the links to progress deep. Sometimes our greatest move, is not making a move at all. Smart play this week by Lisa.
Brad was shown to be the lead voice in last episodes vote. Despite being a threat, original Chani don’t have the numbers to remove him this week and he still has the hidden immunity idol in his position. He is sitting in a great spot. I’d not be shocked if he looked to throw the challenge this week to eliminate JT or Eve.
Arun is an enigma. I’m loving his game play and he has his options wide open this week. He seems to have built trust with Josh through the outpost twist and also being a guy who is deemed to be trustworthy just by the way he carries himself. Arun is a hidden snake and i’m loving it.
The best mates are now together. I loved that Dave welcomed Matt into the tribe, but was not willing to sacrifice his game for a real life friend. Dave showed that he is willing to make the hard call if needed and progress his own game. I think that Dave and Matt will however attempt to look out for each other and it’s why I comfortably place him at 5 this week.
Similar to Dave, Matt has shown that he is very game aware and has the ability to build subtle relationships with people you’d least expect. Whether Chani come together to vote out Dylan or are split 3-3 I think Matt should be a relatively safer position.
Renee was shown more prominently this week. My concern is she may be seen as a back up plan if Dylan has an idol being the only female on new Chani. I think she has a strong enough social game to get through this week.
Tara is a hard one to place. Respectfully, she has appears to be outside the core alliance and does not have obvious links like Lisa. I think it’s doubtful she goes home this week but long term, outside being a floating number that could potentially be seen as an easier person to beat at the end i’m yet to see any strong gameplay.
My concern for Josh is that if I place myself in Dylans shoes i’m 100% flipping over to original Chani. That puts a bigger target on Josh. Because of pure strength and his established connection with Arun, I think he should be safe, but its not a certainty.
Eve played her idol last week and now could be in danger. Her decision to play an idol was a correct one in my mind if she genuinely felt the heat at camp. I personally think Khangkhaw will target JT first.
Dylan has found himself in the swing position. His fate will be one of the following 3 scenarios.
- He will vote with Chani and try to build new connections moving forward into the game.
- Stay with Khangkhaw and be at the bottom and likely be voted out early merge
- Both original Chani and Khangkhaw call a truths and vote out Dylan.
All three options are possible in the next episode.
My fear for Adam is that Dylan flips, Chani play it smart and ask ‘who do you want out Dylan?’ Potentially he picks his arch nemesis Adam. It is basic swing vote strategy. For the sake of this rivalry, I hope it can last longer.
#13 JT: (Ferrari Brain of the Week)
Poor JT. This swap has not been kind. Original Khangkhaw now know he does not have the idol. If i’m Brad, i’m throwing the next two challenges to get out JT and then Eve, preserving my alliance at Chani and setting myself up in a powerful position at the merge.
Dead to us – LIAM