Each week former SurvivorNZ player Shannon Quinn and Survivor super-fan Ryan Brink will go head to head ranking each players likelihood of being voted out in the next episode from safest to most in danger.
The Rulebook: To play this game and for those of you following along, we will be using the traditional Gordon Holmes Power Rankings system to determine the winner. The ranking of the person who is voted out of the next episode will determine the number of points the players will earn.
Note: We rank our players from who we believe is least likely to most likely to be sent home that episode. These are not ranking of who we believe is going to win.
Shannon – 134 Points (+2)
Ryan – 130 Points (+4)
Oh Tara…. I have virtually no doubt at this point that Tara will make F3 (you’d be crazy not to take her with you), but I just don’t see her getting any votes. Unless this season’s edit has completely swept her game under the rug, it just doesn’t look like she’s done enough to impress a Jury. Her best line will be “I’m a mum and I’ve made it 39 days” (now don’t get me wrong, that is definitely something to be proud of), it’s just not going to be enough to sway anyone.
Always the bridesmaid, never the bride… Dave SHOULD survive this vote because it’s either 100% Tess, or in the event of another Tess immunity win I imagine she’ll try to sway Dave once more to target Lisa (arguably the bigger threat); and this time he’ll have to go for it. Immunity seems to always be just out of reach for Dave so he probably can’t rely on that, unfortunately for him there are no prizes for 2nd place…
Through Lisa’s gameplay she has now put herself in a very valuable but VERY vulnerable position this week. She’s got a great case for any (non-salty) Jury IF she can get there, but it’s obvious to everyone now that she’s been calling the shots and could be the one to beat. If Tess can’t be targeted this week it seems likely that Lisa may be in the hot-seat.
In this line-up I’d be crazy not to put Tess in the solid number 4 slot. HOWEVER (even disregarding next week’s edit…) with all the other challenge beasts wiped out she’s probably got the best chance of getting that much needed immunity once again. With a few challenge wins under her belt and a LOT of friends on the Jury she would have a great case if she makes F3.
DEAD TO US – ADAM O’BRIEN
At this point I really feel for Tara. She seems absolutely lovely but unfortunately she is looking at 0 vote final three appearance. To Tara’s credit she has made it all the way to the end of the game without being seen as a threat. But as Lisa has shown, you need to make “a move” and show others why you deserve to win this game. Being a nice person can get you to Day 39, but it does not necessarily win you $250,000.
Dave is in a bad position. Knowing that Matt has blown their secret friendship to the Jury will only be negative to his chances of winning this game. I think he gets through regardless of an immunity win, but he faces an uphill battle to get the votes.
What a week for Lisa. She solidified her numbers and had Adam tell the jury exactly why she should be the sole survivor. Her biggest hurdle will be overcoming the Mum archetype bias and the jury recognising gameplay over who is most popular. Lisa has played a masterful game, I hope she fulfils her lifelong dream by making the final tribal council.
#4 Tess: (SNAKE OF THE WEEK)
Tess is one immunity win away from winning this game in my opinion. She has played a strong social game throughout and despite lacking strong strategy (except her alliance with Larry the Lizard) after the Brad vote, she has strong support on the Jury. To me this is a jury that will reward loyalty and she has been loyal to the majority. If she loses individual immunity she has no chance of surviving, you might as well snuff her torch at the challenge Matt!